The Current Financial Situation in the United States: Exploding Debt and Deficits, Private Debt, and Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
Summary: Discover the current financial situation in the United States, including exploding public debt, near-record private debt, and an enormous Federal Reserve balance sheet. Learn more here. #USFinance #DebtCrisis
You would think that with the stock market at an all-time high and interest rates at exceptionally low levels, the United States must have its financial house in order. Nothing, however, could be further from the truth.
The public debt and deficits, private debt, total debt, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet have never all been at or close to their all-time highs at the same time.
Exploding Public Debt and Deficits
When President Reagan took office, the federal public debt ratio to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was around 31%. When he left office, it was about 50%.[i] Today, after the 2008 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, with total government debt around $27 trillion and a $21.5 trillion GDP, the deficit ratio stands at 129%. The previous high of 118% occurred at the end of the Second World War.[ii]
Today, the deficit hovers around 14% of the GDP. The only time it was higher was also at the end of WWII when it reached 27%. Amazingly, it took only four years 1948 until the U.S. government turned this deficit into a surplus.[iii]
Near-Record Private Debt
With a GDP of \$21.5 trillion, private debt today—which includes mortgages, car loans, and business debts—is about \$34 trillion, making the ratio of private debt to GDP 160%. Before the Great Depression, it was 140%, and right before the 2008 Great Recession, it got as high as 170%.[iv]
Gigantic Total Debt
In 1980, total debt—private, corporate, state, and federal—was 1.75 times the GDP. Today, it is around 3.8 times. Think of it this way: in 1980, we had $175,000 of debt for every $100,000 of GDP. Today $100,000 of GDP equates to $380,000 of debt.
An Enormous Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is currently $7.4 trillion, which equates to 35% of the GDP, eclipsing the previous high of 23% of the GDP during the Great Depression and 20% at the end of WWII.[vi]
Can We Grow Our Way Out?
With President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package and, my guess, another aimed at infrastructure, the administration hopes that similar to post-WWII, the economy can outgrow its current debt levels.
However, the level of private debt is more significant now. During the war, the government limited personal debt, requiring large down payments on installment loans and restricting terms to one year.[viii] Plus, the depression forced untold bankruptcies and the write-off of enormous personal and business debt.
So, after the war, consumer spending quickly made up for any reduction in government outlays. But unlike then, there is more competition for economic success because the rest of the world does not lie in ruin from the war.
Should You Make Any Changes to Your Financial Plans?
As bad as these debt levels are, they are not predictive. Keep your allocation between stocks and bonds that meet your goals and risk tolerance. Don’t chase rising stock prices. Resist the drumbeat of inflation predictions. Diversify some outside of the United States. Maybe lock in any variable rate loans. If possible, pay down some debt.
These are the opinions of Financial Advisor Tim Hayes and not necessarily those of Cambridge Investment Research. They are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Content provided via links to third party sites should not be considered an endorsement of content, which we cannot verify completeness or accuracy of.
Financial Advisor Tim Hayes
I’ve held an industry securities registration for 30+ years and am subject to SEC and FINRA oversight.
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