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Is Quantitive Easing (QE4) Stimulative to the Economy?

Beginning in October 2019, the Federal Reserve started buying $60 billion a month of treasury bills, which are short-term government obligations.

Because the bills are short-lived, the Federal Reserve has been adamant that this new program is not QE4.

One critical point about QE is not what the Fed is buying but from whom they are buying.

Understanding Quantitative Easing or Q.E.

When they purchase treasuries from banks, banks get more reserves per non-event; however, when they buy from a non-bank, the Fed receives a bond (an asset) offset with reserves (a liability). Commercial banks get reserves (an asset) offset by a deposit (an obligation).

That bank deposit is no different than what the seller of the bond would get if they took out a new loan. It injects dollars into the economy because nobody’s bank account gets reduced.

In typical business transactions, the purchaser of a bond or any other financial asset sees their bank account drop by the amount paid. Money moves around but is not created, not so with QE. Because the Fed creates new money, nobody sees their bank account fall by the amount of the purchase.

Money Creation In the Time of QE

Reserves and Deposits

This connection between reserves and deposits is, in part, why negative interest rates won’t work. Why would banks create deposits that they may have to pay interest on when the reserves received from the central bank to offset the deposit are subject to a negative interest rate?

Here in the U.S., commercial banks make interest on their excess reserves. And if the interest rate is higher than what they are paying to their depositors, QE leads to higher profits.

The Fed Is Living Dangerously With All These Excess Reserves

Does QE4 Juice the Stock Market?

There is no way to know for sure. Still, when the Fed adds money to the economy by buying bonds from non-banks, the stock market seems to go up. When they subtracted cash from the economy by not reinvesting mortgage payments (quantitative tightening), it went down.

Why an Inverted Yield Curve Matters to You

Has the Fed Stumbled upon Continual Economic Growth?

Keep providing money (QE) to the economy by buying assets from nonbanks. As money continues to fund financial assets, labor gets little of it. Does this mean inflation will remain tame? The wealth effect dictates that rising stock prices will result in wealthy investors spending more, causing the economy to grow.

What could possibly go wrong?

These are the opinions of Tim Hayes and not necessarily those of Cambridge Investment Research. They are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.

More About Tim

Expert and highly personalized financial planning, retirement planning, and independent wealth management solutions, when you need an independent financial advisor in Massachusetts — Boston and Greater Boston, Beverly or the North Shore, Hingham, or another town on the South Shore, Andover and the Merrimack Valley, the Metrowest including Lincoln, or the Southcoast, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Providence, RI from my Dartmouth office.

If you're concerned about your financial future, let’s talk

 

If you’re concerned about your financial future, let’s talk